1/21/23
At this point everyone agrees on the direction of importance of Generative AI, but most of the discourse is trying to figure out the magnitude of its importance. A lot of that will only be measurable in hindsight once large platforms or applications have been built, but we’re all still scratching our heads for the time being estimating a priori where we think the value will come from or what shape it may take. There’s also a lot of discourse on whether value accrues to open or closed platforms, or models vs apps.
While it’s anyone’s guess what the specific crystallizations of value will look like, I think (1) investors are far too concerned with differentiated supply of future value when instead we should reason about what the demand drivers will be, and (2) developers can reason about the superpowers of these new tools to come up with some evaluative questions for what could be both valuable and defensible, some of which I’ll outline below. The caveat here is that in my day job I mainly only look at consumer applications, so enterprise products may require different questions.
Do you agree/disagree with the above? Are there heuristic questions you’d include to this list? Reach out and let me know!